HOW TO USE TRENDS FOR GOOD

What does the word trend mean to you?

Us fashion industry types spend an inordinate amount of time gazing at trends. Analyzing them, wondering what they mean, which ones to follow and which ones to ignore. Stressing about missing out, being late, being early or getting it wrong. 

When we talk about trends through the lens of fashion we’re often thinking about things like cuts and hemlines, footwear silhouettes and ‘seasonal colours’, and this to many people, is still what defines a ‘trend’. These kinds of short-term trends are the type that are utilized to create desire and drive change, season on season. They are designed to make us feel that we must have these items, or we’ll be missing out. 

This is the modus operandi of seasonal, fast fashion from Primark to Louis Vuitton, and the model by which we create so much of the product we see around us. In short, these types of trends are there to help us create and buy, more stuff...

But do trends even matter anymore?

If we accept that growth for growth’s sake is not sustainable in a world with limited resources, then we need to accept the inevitability of having to create product differently. 

The fashion industry is built on the idea of fast turnover whether you’re Zara, Nike or Prada, the idea is the same. Selling more through creating more. More desire, more demand, more ideas, more things. . . It’s a frantic treadmill and short-term trends are the driving heart of it.

It’s easy to talk about change but It feels risky and a little discombobulating to pivot from the idea of more of everything being better, to doing less and better. To produce less waste it takes a considered approach through every part of the process, from planning, design and development. You need to know what you’re aiming at if you have less options to get it right... 

This is particularly true for footwear. Landing relevant product at the right time with such long lead times from creation to consumer, together with expensive development costs, makes it a real challenge to get right, and makes getting it wrong, costly, and difficult to change. 

The knock-on effect of that is that we play it ‘safe’ when planning product. We look at what our competitors are doing and create something similar. We ask our retailers what they think is happening. We check out trend sites. It’s pretty fashionable right now to ask your consumer what they want, and to use data and ai to deep dive into consumer behavior. But looking at our competitors and our consumers for guidance, will only get you the answers to what’s happening right now and a bit into the future. At best you’ll pick up on the zeitgeist and join the trend halfway through its journey on the diffusion of innovation curve, at the point where it’s tipping over into the early majority. 

Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Curve. A screenshot of a Zalando search for ‘shoes’ showing 34,405 items.

The temptation then, is to mitigate the risks by chasing those mid curvetrends. Creating lots of product to cover every base, hoping that some of these will stick. Some of it invariably will stick but much of it will not, and this is when this approach becomes problematic. We end up with a lot of waste, and a lot of discounts, meaning reduced margins, big design and development bills, loss of brand kudos and much worse, a lot of toxic landfill.

In this scenario trend analysis becomes really important not just to make money but to reduce waste, by focusing on what’s relevant and right  for your brand and your consumer, sending a clear message as to who you are and what you stand for.

We might think a trend happens in a season but the really big trends, the true societal shifts, start much further back in time, at the point where the cultural movement or world event is forming. These are the long trends that effect, and are driven by, our psychology. That drive our desire to align ourselves with a certain tribe of like-minded people. These are the trends that can really make a difference.

2020 gave us a crystal-clear demonstration of how a ‘long’ or ‘purpose driven’ trend approach works, with 3 of the year’s most successful brands able to trace their uptick in sales and engagement directly back to slow and gradual shifts in world events…

The first has a long history as the footwear choice for rebellion, change and protest. 

The pure utilitarian authenticity of the DM boot, which was originally worn as a classic work wear shoe, has seen it ebb and flow throughout modern cultural movements, from ska to punk to goths and grunge. The 1460 boot found popularity in the 70’s and the 80’s, at a time of huge unrest with political upheaval, race riots, identity politics and the protests that sprung from these events, happening across the world. 

It lost much of its relevance from the mid 90’s on - a time of rave and hedonism, obsession with celebrity culture and the vertiginous heel. But fast forward to 2013/14 and the rise, once again in extreme and disruptive political polarization, the BLM, LGBTQ+ & #me too movements, and the DM boot is back again as a quick look at the sales figures will tell you. 

In short you don’t generally go to a protest in a pair of ballet flats…

The 2nd example speaks to the climate crisis: While you could argue correctly that street wear and outdoor wear have always been hand in hand, the current ubiquity of the ‘outdoor’ trend has taken it to the mainstream. There’s no doubt that the success of North Face is based on it’s hard won credibility in the outdoor market, through great design, marketing and some smart co-labs. But there’s also something else at play here...

The effect of the climate crisis has heightened our sensitivity to our environment. It drives a feeling and a want to be part of the natural world and to benefit from all of the mental and physical benefits it gives us. It also drives a need to feel protected against the world, whether that’s on a mountain or a street.  The 2 drivers together have created a steadily increasing desire, for credible, protective, and functional outdoor gear. 

The tangible effect of this shift in our psyches, has been to make outdoor gear and brands ‘on trend’ and make Northface with its authentic product and smart marketing, one of the most desired and searched for brands right now.

Northface and Gucci

Compare this to another footwear icon, the Birkenstock. As the world got more polarized and the political situation more threatening, we increasingly turned to the sanctuary of the local and home environment. Trend watchers have long been tracking the millennial consumer’s propensity to live their lives through the lens of the home hub. and if you’d been paying attention over the last 10 years, you’d have seen this across multiple sectors from entertainment (Netflix etc.) to food (Deliveroo) to health and wellness (Peleton).

When the Covid pandemic happened and the subsequent lockdowns, this trend was already well underway, but it accelerated 10-fold. The tangible effect of this shift in our psyches was reflected in the items we all bought last year, Pangaia sweats and Birkenstocks. (FN’s shoe of the year 2020).

{None of this I should add takes away from the grand job done across product and marketing by the talented teams at Dr Martens and Birkenstock– the trick of great brand management is to recognize the curve and know when to surf the wave}.

So just 3 recent examples of some big macro trends and how and why they relate to what we wear.

Political Unrest & protest: Dr Martens. 

Climate Change and the Great Outdoors: Northface.

The home hub and the local economy: Birkenstock

Why does this matter? 

Because substantial shifts in consumer reactions to world events across politics, travel, technology, food and environmental issues will influence what and how your consumer will buy, for decades not seasons. Understanding how they apply to your brand and consumer values, will directly affect the product you create in response to them, in terms of both meaning and function if you’re prepared to commit to the journey.

Understanding these shifts early enough in the cycle, will help to focus on building less and better product, with longevity and purpose.

Get this right, and your business will reap the rewards, of high percentage sell through, less discounting, less waste, and increased margins. Add to that happy manufacturers, an easy sell-in, brand kudos, and slaps on the back all round. It will ultimately give you control over your brand direction and an ability to ride the waves and survive the dips.

On an environmental level this thoughtful and focused approach, allows for a more sustainable, and less frantic product creation process. It means less padding in our ranges, not producing a hundred versions around a theme every season, with all of the waste in resource that this entails.

It’s not just a short-term reward either. Getting the right product in, (and the right marketing message across), at the right time, creates a synergy with your consumer - they think of your brand as one of their own, a brand that gets what they’re about, what’s important to them and a brand they’ll be loyal to, sometimes for life.

These are the trends that are worth knowing about.

At RAYY we believe in the considered approach to trends and creation, asking why? not just what.  Talk to us to hear more.